Although I agree with Joe that their are gas savings currently. The oil prices have been going down because of the slowing/declining growth of the economy. So as soon as the economy turns around, the gas prices will shoot up again. The economy is a funny thing. You lower the rates to improve the economy, but indirectly this will affect the economy in a bad way to.

Really the answer is that we all need to go shopping our a** off, so companies will start reporting positive sales numbers, which will lead to more jobs and more people spending money.

My 2 pennies.

When do you know you’re in a REAL REAL DEEP Recession?

You see tires being driven down to the chord.
Restraunts (all of them) totally empty.
Cigar butts smoked all the way down to the filter.
Car pooling chatter heard all the time.
You reuse coffee filters.
You add coffee to day old coffee grounds.
You don’t buy jeans with holes… you earned them.

Hey!
No one talks about how recessions can produce MORE of a lot of stuff…

You see a lot More…
Bicycles
More hitch hikers
More noodle casserole meals
More drinking
More neighbors helping neighbors
More cars on jacks in neighborhoods
More college grads doing trades work (God help us all if we need to kick the illegals out to take back work in this arena)
More patches on jeans…

Lastly,
Not all places are suffering the same. Some areas are bearing most of the downturn. In the Great Depression, if memory serves me right, I recall that San Francisco missed the whole event.

Joe

First off, John as I mentioned in a previous comment, and has been reiterated here– the spread of bad news and belief that things are terrible will continue to make things worse, not better. Hence the term “consumer confidence.”

Yes, our overall economy is at an all-time low. Unemployment is high (unless you live in ND apparently). But the reason things will continue to get worse will be because of consumer confidence.

As Grant Cardone said, the power to turn this economy around is in the consumer. If the consumer is empowered (tax incentives, loan incentives, Madoff gets the chair… just sayin’) then it will spur our economy.

There are still good investments to be made. Good money to be spent. Heck, if you bought trucks when gas was high, you’re making good money on them now!

As a real estate investor I have followed the market very closely. I haven’t bought a house in 2 years because I smelled it coming (it hit us a little later than most of the country).

But as mentioned, houses are still selling. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are getting their crap together. They’re doing what they can to NOT put houses in foreclosure. It would be a spur to the market to start buying some of these foreclosures in the months before summer, and have them market-ready by summer, keeping in mind they won’t sell for what they would have 3 years ago. BUT it’s a market adjustment.

I may be wrong on that, it is just speculation. Ideas?

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t07.htm

July’s gasoline shock crushed everyone’s retail appetite. Septembers stock market fall sealed every families resolve to have a very simple (low cost) Holiday.

So, average Joe’s gasoline windfall keeps piling up AND add a low cost Christmas and Average Joe is paying off those Credit Cards with glee!

All the while, since July, he keeps racking up miles and miles on his aging ride. He’s holding back from buying new, waiting for the smoke to clear…

While Average Joe is holding back, auction yards are spilling over with excess inventory. Lease returns, cash strapped dealers looking to raise cash, rentals, are all trying to find a bidder.

Manheim’s Auction Index has had the steepest price decline in its 15 year histroy, now 2 months running.

At this point, there is NO PROOF that Average Joe is going to show up and save the day. But, you can see the potential for a rebound.

I am a firm believer that the 1st Q of 09 will be a banner year for used cars. I hope your dealer is poised to “catch a falling knife” and bravely go where no sane man dares pass… step in there and buy some really cheap inventory to flip into spring’s new market.

A strategic optimist,
Joe

BUY FEAR, SELL GREED..

Where have our customers gone? They’re not in ANY stores! The TV news these days is full of fear and we all know nothing rivets an audience better than some good old fashioned “the world is ending” fear (see wikipedia: Chicken Little) haha…

Ok, the news on TV is grim, but what news is brewing behind the scenes? Good news I say! First, we know that 93 out of 100 of your customers are still working and second, they ALL have to drive to work and BETTER NEWS! 93% of the US population has been given a BIG raise recently!

Since July 4th, gasoline has fallen just over 60%. In NY, it’s fallen from $4.30 a gallon to $1.60’s. Where ever you live “The Oil Bubble of 2008” has popped, but, the Credit Crisis on TV has us all paralyzed.

Ok, while we’re in our fox holes watching TV news dispense doom and gloom, how are things at your customer’s home? Let’s look at their gasoline bill, this month vs July (5 months ago).

Mr. and Mrs. Average Joe have a sedan and a SUV and drive 15,000 miles a year each.

Sedan:
Chevy Impala = 56 gallons per Month

JULY: $4.30 p/gal fill up = $240.80

NOW: $1.65 p/gal fill up = $92.40

Save = $148.40

SUV:
A Ford Explorer = 78 gallons per Month

JULY: $4.30 p/gal fill up = $335.40

NOW: $2.65 p/gal fill up = $128.70

Save = $206.70

Combined gas savings per month: $370.10

That is sweet news indeed!

Drop this Credit Crisis news and we’d be over run with consumers! Alas, the credit crisis news is grim and hides this windfall. But, as the weeks pass, the Fed intervention will make its way into the system. Fear will ebb and your customers will get that “all clear” signal to come out into the sun.

In the mean time, they’ll have been enjoying a windfall of lower energy (and falling food prices). This windfall is enormous and is piling into our laps. Remember, it was just a few months ago when everyone (me included) had resigned ourselves to the new era of $4 gasoline.

When the time comes for your customers to dump the old car and buy new, they’ll be more conservative and far more open to the value of a used car then ever before. There has never been a better time for the future of selling used cars than here and now.
http://www.dalepollak.com/2008/10/27/average-joe-gets-a-22100-raise/#comments

Joe